EUR/USD

It’s been a quiet week for EUR/USD and this lack of activity continues on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, French CPI came in at a flat 0.0%, while German CPI slipped to -0.3%. In the US, we’ll get a look at key employment data, with the release of Unemployment Claims and  JOLTS Job Openings. In Washington, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at conference hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD edged upwards in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.
On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This line has remained intact since August 2012.
1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518 EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from earlier highs

Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from earlier highs, but overall sentiment stayed with the bears as outflows from bullion funds showed no sign of slowing.
Market participants were also digesting news that Swiss regulator FINMA said it found a “clear attempt” to manipulate precious metals benchmarks during its investigation into precious metals and FX trading at UBS.
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.12 percent to 724.46 tonnes on Tuesday – a six-year low.
The figures marked the fund’s sixth straight day of outflows. The ETF is seen as a good reflection of market sentiment due to the size of its holdings.
“The overall backdrop is still negative with the dollar tilting towards strength and continued ETF outflows due to continued rises in U.S. stock markets,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
He added that subdued physical demand in Asia and a weak technical picture were also darkening the outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,167.60 an ounce by 1339 GMT, after gaining 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::50 GMT - Mkt. has been a bit higher in earlier trade but the top ofthe 0.9680/00 res. band has held. A subsequent break, if seen, should allow for a retest of the 0.9740 top. Sup., meanwhile, should be around 0.9650 then 0.9613.  N.I.
R5: 0.9898  2 Aug 12 high
R4: 0.9790 * 29 May 13 high
R3: 0.9751 * Jul 13 high
R2: 0.9740  Fri high
R1: 0.9680/00  intraday level
S1: 0.9650  intraday level
S2: 0.9614  Mon low
S3: 0.9600  Thurs low
S4: 0.9578  4 Nov low
S5: 0.9539 * 30 Oct low

EUR/USD is stable on Tuesday

EUR/USD is stable on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.24 line in the European session. On the release front, there are no releases out of the Eurozone, and French banks are closed for Remembrance Day. In the US, banks will be closed for Veterans Day, so traders can expect reduced liquidity in the currency markets. The only release on Tuesday is NFIB Small Business Index, a minor event.
It was a poor start for the Eurozone on Monday. Italian Industrial Production dropped 0.9%, its third decline in three releases. The markets had expected a gain of 0.2%. There was no relief from Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, which posted a third straight decline, as investor and analyst sentiment has slipped to very low levels. This poor reading comes as no surprise, as with the Eurozone stuck with low growth, weak inflation and high unemployment. Draghi has lowered interest rates to the bone, but the cuts have not improved the economic situation. The ECB has decided to focus on its balance sheet and has issued long-term loans to banks and purchased covered bonds. The ECB will begin buying asset-backed purchases later this month, which could push down on the struggling euro. However, these moves may not be enough and Draghi may be forced to borrow a page from the book of other central banks and commence quantitative easing, which is the purchase of government securities.EUR/USD has been uneventful in the Asian session. The pair tested support at 1.2407 in European trade.
1.2407 was tested earlier but continues to provide support. 1.2286 is stronger.
1.2518 is a strong resistance line.
Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518 EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio is close to a split between and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

USD/JPY trades in the mid-114 range

The Japanese yen is steady on Monday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-114 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Japanese Current Account will be released later in the day. There are no US releases on Monday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed on Friday, as the key employment indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its previous policy meeting, which took place earlier in October. That event sent the yen tumbling and the currency has yet to recover. At the meeting, the BoJ surprised the markets by increasing monetary stimulus from JPY 60-70 trillion to 80 trillion per year.
USD/JY lost ground in the Asian session but has recovered in European trade.
114.65 is a weak resistance line. 115.75 is stronger.
113.68 is providing support. 112.94 is next.
Current range: 113.68 to 114.65
USD/JPY is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the lack of movement shown by the pair. The ratio currently has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out of range and moving upwards.

gold as a hedge against the dollar

Many hold gold as a hedge against the dollar and indeed the traditional negative relationship has been very evident this year - the negative correlation particularly strengthened in H2. At the moment gold's 20-day correlation with the trade-weighted dollar index is hovering near the lowest levels since September 2012. This also means that the relationship between gold and the euro is near its strongest - right now the 20-day correlation sits at 0.62, which is near the highs for the year. With the dollar appreciating strongly, helped by BOJ and ECB easing, it should be no surprise that gold is coming under tremendous pressure.

USD/CHF Daily

Nov  USD/CHF  Daily
13::50 GMT - Significant break higher in recent trade with prices now  above 0.97. Next focus is the tops at 0.9751 and 0.9790 and we could  see a trade near here once overbought indicators have unwound. Sup. should be in the 0.9670/90 band. N.I.
R4: 0.9898  2 Aug 12 high
R3: 0.9790 * 29 May 13 high
R2: 0.9751 * Jul 13 high
R1: 0.9720  minor projection
S1: 0.9670/90  recent tops
S2: 0.9600  intraday level
S3: 0.9578  Tues low
S4: 0.9539 * 30 Oct low
S5: 0.9520  recent highs